OPEC: Energy to rise by 33% before 2040

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Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC's Secretary-General

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has predicted that energy demand would rise by 33 per cent from 2015 to 2040.

According to OPEC, the rise in demand would require almost $11 trillion in oil exploration and production during the period OPEC targets Crude price stability.

OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, who made the disclosure at the SPE Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, in Kuwait City, said: “Overall energy demand will increase 33 per cent from 2015 to 2040, with almost 95 per cent of that demand coming from developing countries, led by India and China.

“Crude oil will continue to account for the largest share of the energy mix by 2040 – around 28 per cent, oil and gas together are projected to make up more than 50 per cent of the global energy needs.

 “Worldwide oil demand is forecast to grow by around 14.5 million barrels per day, rising to nearly 112 million barrels per day by 2040.

“Road transportation will remain one of the main drivers of oil demand – even taking into account advances in efficiency, tightening emissions policies and the growth of electric vehicle use.

Our projections show that the total vehicle stock is estimated to grow by around 1.1 billion between 2017 and 2040, to 2.4 billion vehicles, with electric vehicles accounting for just 13per cent of the overall fleet by 2040.”

He further stated: “The largest incremental demand growth for crude oil is projected to come from the petrochemicals sector, according to the Outlook.

“While the outlook for the petroleum sector is bright, the industry also has a responsibility to be part of the solution to the challenge of climate change. We must be more than a stable energy supplier.

“Let me identify three important and interconnected points on how we can retain a competitive position while addressing the climate issue.

First, the oil industry needs both a seat at the table in the discussions on the energy future – and a level playing field when it comes to energy policy making.

“This is why OPEC has supported the Paris Agreement and is fully engaged at the multilateral level in discussions on climate policy.”

 “The ‘Declaration’ has been a game-changer for the industry. The production adjustments undertaken by the participating countries over the past three years have reversed the severe oil market crisis of 2014-2016 and restored durable stability to the global oil market.

“The success of the partnership and the market-balancing measures it has undertaken owe much to the unwavering support of Kuwait that continues to serve on our JMMC and the steadfast leadership now being set forth by Khaled Al-Fadhel.”

In July this year, the 24 participating countries in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ unanimously endorsed a ‘Charter of Cooperation’. This voluntary initiative puts us in a stronger position over the longer term to address areas of common interest, including energy security, the energy transition and the challenge of climate change.”

Finally he concluded by saying that the oil industry needs a supportive investment climate if they were to meet the world’s energy needs and deliver solutions to climate challenges.

OPEC estimates that investments of almost $11 trillion in the industry will be needed to address the demand and supply outlook mentioned earlier.

Suzan O