Soybean market gets bullish and corn bearish

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On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets finished mixed.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1¾¢ lower at $3.84¼. May corn futures ended 1¼¢ lower at $3.91¾.

March soybean futures closed 3¼¢ higher at $9.44½. May soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.58¼.

March wheat futures finished 4¼¢ lower at $5.50.

March soymeal futures closed $1.70 per short ton higher at $302.90. March soy oil futures closed 0.56¢ lower at 34.52¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.25 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that investors have their minds on geopolitical events, while awaiting Friday’s reports.

“Been a foreign trade kind of day. Wheat prices are suffering, due to the threat to sales to Iraq now with the killing of the Iranian general in Iraq. But soybean prices are heading higher on the promise of a new U.S.-China trade deal being signed on the 15th. All still looks go for that event. So, the markets have reacted accordingly. The volume is pathetic away from the funds, and the funds are slowing down, too,” Scoville says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the market is watching to see if the grain traders’ nervousness last week from tensions between the U.S. and Iran will carry over to this week.

“The outside markets were rather quiet when trading opened Sunday evening. However, the stock market has drifted lower, and oil has been steadily moving higher. Gold and silver are also seeing big gains, as traders look for a safe place to park their money in the short term. So far, grains have started the week off in a quiet, narrow range, ” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “Traders will surely be watching the headlines for any further indications of increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. These headlines could impact grain prices if the outside markets start accelerating downward.”

The USDA’s Weekly Export Inspection Report shows that U.S. soybean shipments are tracking the highest year-over-year pace compared with corn and wheat.

Here are Monday’s results:

Corn = 551,000 tonnes vs. 400-600,000 tonnes expected. So far, year-over-year pace is off 53%.

Soybeans = 964,000 tonnes vs. 500,000-1.0 mill. tonnes expected. Soybean shipments, year-over-year, are up 26%.

Wheat = 345,000 tonnes vs. 300,000-500,000 tonnes. For year-over-year pace, this is up 15%.

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